There is a football betting wisdom that one key to achieving long term profit is in the bets that the punters LEAVE OUT rather than the ones they punted on. This can be interpreted that if you miss a good bet, you do not lose any money. On the other hand, if you back a losing selection, you are definitely some $$$ down.
Some punters consider losing as a prelude to success, just like the saying that «before success comes failure». It is through learning from the mistakes made that we improve as we will learn to do less of what’s wrong and more of what’s right.
I have the privilege to be acquainted with many of the purchasers of my book and the readers of my articles on football betting. These folks had discussed their punting problems and experiences with me, and they had very kindly allowed me to share these cases in this article. I have decided to highlight five of the cases and for a clearer understanding, they will be presented in the format of Question and Answer.
1) TRACKING ODDS MOVEMENT BEFORE BETTING
QUESTION : I have been thinking of a strategy where I will first target some teams and then watch for movement of the odds. For example Team A has opening odds of 2.10 and later the price runs down to 1.90. I will conclude that this will mean something has happened to Team A and that it is now considered to have a better chance of winning. What do you think of this strategy?
ANSWER : Movement of the price could be due to latest team news which the bookmakers consider necessary to adjust the odds. It can also be that large amount of money has been placed on one side of the market, for example the Home team, and the bookmakers have to improve the odds of the Away team to entice the punters to bet on it so as to balance their books. In your case, you have to decide if the price of 1.90 is of VALUE to you and if it is, the market move should also have given you more confidence in your selection.
2) IS THIS A REALISTIC LONG TERM PLAN?
QUESTION : I will start with a bank of $5000 and attempt to double the bank every year. I know I need to be diligent in doing my analysis and research and only bet on selections I am most confident in. I will bet around 2 – 5 bets a week, never risking more than 3% of my bank, that is, for the first week, maximum total amount to place on the bets is $150. I feel comfortable knowing that the maximum risk is 3% of my bank. Is my plan feasible or am I just day dreaming?
ANSWER : Your plan is realistic BUT it will only work with discipline and patience especially in implementing money management rules on staking plan and staking size. A common mistake made by many punters is to start off by strictly following laid out rules but eventually succumbing to influences like greed and impatience. When the going is rosy, they tend to jump on the bandwagon and deviate from the pre-set guideline and double their stake. And when they are down, they will fall into the usual trap of chasing their losses. You mentioned you are wagering 2 – 5 bets a week. Do not make rash decisions just to meet the targeted bets. You need to have the patience to WAIT for the right bets which give you VALUE.
3) BETTING ON ACCUMULATORS
QUESTION : I have been betting on accumulators (combo bets or multiple bets) for a while and I have not made a dime. Most of the time I could get 80% – 90% of my predictions right but one to two choices upset it all. I have always thoroughly researched my bets and not betting blindly. Just last week in a 9 team accumulator, I could get 8 selections right and one bad result ruined it altogether.
ANSWER : If you can correctly forecast 80% – 90% of the games, then most of your selections are winning predictions. You should easily be making consistent profit if you have betted them individually as SINGLE BETS (that is, a straight bet on one selection to win). When you lumped all of them together in a large accumulator, one upset result is all it takes to ruin it. You have to understand that in a match there are many unforeseeable circumstances like bad weather, red card, injuries, etc. The potential profits for large accumulators are substantially greater than for single bets, but the chances of winning are correspondingly smaller.
4) ARBITRAGE (OR SUREBETS) BETTING
QUESTION : Is it worthwhile concentrating on arbitrage (or surebets) which guarantee a profit every day which is really wonderful?
ANSWER : To make arbitrage worthwhile you will need a large betting fund to start with as you have to open up accounts with a lot of bookmakers and make the necessary deposit in each account. Much time is also needed to check the odds offered by the numerous bookmakers. Though arbitrage betting is considered as risk free, sometimes there are annoying TRAPS especially when you have betted on one side of the arbitrage bet and you can’t get on the other side because :
* the odds have changed
* the bookmakers impose trading limits and you can’t bet the amount you would like
* the bookmakers refuse to honour the price on the ground that it was a mistake
5) LOOKING AT BOOKMAKERS’ ODDS FIRST
QUESTION : I normally look at the bookmakers’ odds first before picking my bets. But my best friend disagree that this is the right thing to do.
ANSWER : I agree with your best friend. Do not be tempted to look at the odds beforehand as it will influence your judgement and decision making. You have to first find a winning selection and work out your estimated odds. You will THEN check the bookmakers’ prices and bet ONLY if you find VALUE.
I hope we have all learned something from the above punting cases. Teach yourself to be a winner and you will be a winner. Learning to win is a process. Do not be impatient and expect to make your fortune overnight, unless you know something which majority of the punters do not OR you are exceptionally lucky. Do add this virtue called PATIENCE to your betting strategy. It works wonders.
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